Many people want to improve their investment skills, but the question is: what should we actually focus on?
Is it technical analysis? Is it fundamental analysis?
In this article, I want to share a completely different perspective on investing—one that I discovered through painful experiences in Japan.
Lessons From Harsh Beginnings
Ironically, it was my early failures in Japan’s difficult markets that helped me sharpen my investment skills.
When you are thrown into a tough environment first, you start to recognize just how different it feels when you later encounter a “easier” market.
Before I began investing seriously, FX trading was booming in Japan.
Despite Japan’s near-zero interest rates, other countries were raising theirs. This created a massive interest rate differential, which meant that simply holding positions in the dollar, pound, or euro would earn you money through swap interest.
On top of that, USD/JPY kept rising, so anyone who held dollar positions accumulated enormous wealth with little effort.
Some even reinvested their FX profits into Bitcoin and ended up living in luxury apartments in Dubai at a young age.
Entering at the Wrong Phase
By the time I entered FX, however, the environment had shifted.
The Federal Reserve (FRB) was about to cut rates, while the Bank of Japan was preparing to raise them.
This created an almost impossible situation:
- If I shorted the dollar, I lost money every day to interest payments.
- If I bought the dollar, I went against the macro trend of a falling currency.
No matter how much I studied or refined my strategies, I couldn’t find a sustainable edge.
I suffered losses and had to step back.
At the time, I was confident in my business decisions, but the market humbled me. I realized there were countless people smarter and faster than me.
A Fresh Start With Japanese Stocks
After some time, I returned to the markets—this time focusing on Japanese equities.
As inflation accelerated, I believed certain stocks still had room to rise.
At the same time, I held positions in gold and Bitcoin, which also showed strong upward momentum.
For reasons I still can’t fully explain, the market began to feel almost transparent.
Perhaps it was the accumulation of my technical and fundamental studies, but suddenly I could see the flow of the market more clearly—and I rarely lost trades.
My Conclusion: Investing Is About Difficulty Levels
Through these experiences, I reached an important conclusion:
The difficulty of investing depends heavily on the timing and the asset.
The true challenge is not about having the highest IQ or mastering every technical indicator.
Instead, it is about finding the easiest wave—the market phase where the odds are naturally in your favor.
Why Successful Investors Keep Winning
When I look at highly successful investors, I don’t believe they are necessarily the most intelligent people.
Their strength lies in:
- Having the right information at the right time
- Being able to recognize and ride the most favorable waves
Some were simply lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time.
Others had the ability to see what the rest of us could not and act decisively on it.
The Key Question: Why Didn’t Japan Raise Rates?
While central banks around the world raised interest rates, the Bank of Japan stood still.
If we deeply understand the reasoning behind this, we may gain the ability to choose the right wave—anytime, anywhere.
Final Thoughts
This is just the foundation.
I will soon publish a premium blog series where I break down these principles further and explain how to consistently spot the easiest waves in global markets.
Stay tuned.
